The September issue of The Krehbiel Letter was late. I wrote it, started printing it, and then … I tore it up.
It was too depressing.
Not without reason. A lot of things are pretty bad. But if you’re in publishing, you’re already depressed. You don’t need more bad news.
You also don’t need happy clappy optimism – which always sets my teeth on edge. I like happiness and optimism as much as the next guy (I guess), but not when it’s manufactured, and definitely not when it’s just fresh paint on rotten wood.
Industries and cultures go through cycles. We’re living through the ugly part of the cultural merry-go-round right now, where everything looks bleak and people lose hope. There’s a serious “meaning crisis” out there and people are losing trust in just about everything.
The cultural cycle goes something like this.
- Vitality and optimism is followed by …
- Exuberance and excess. That leads to …
- Incompetence, disillusionment and decline, which is followed by …
- Exhaustion and a collapse of trust.
These don’t exist in a vacuum, and they’re not just in our heads. There are reasons for the vitality, and then there are reasons for the disillusionment and the collapse of trust.
Out of the …
- Exhaustion and feeling of powerlessness that flows from the collapse of trust comes a …
- Hunger for renewal. Unless the culture is completely spent, this hunger can create …
- Early sparks of new art, new leaders, and new movements that eventually result in …
- Rebuilding and revival, taking us back to vitality and optimism.
The United States, and the west in general, has been through this cycle many times.
I think it’s clear where we are in that cycle right now, and knowing that, we have a choice. Do we give in to despair, or do we start looking for those new sparks?
Although I’ve been speaking about the culture in general, the same pattern seems to apply to publishing. The whole industry is in a funk, but there are signs of renewal. We’re nowhere near “vitality and optimism,” but if we catch the right wave, we can surf … for a little while.
Here are a few positive signs.
- There’s a slow movement away from free content supported by ads, which was a dumb idea.
- Old media empires (and models) are failing. New media empires are developing.
- Trust in traditional media is in the toilet. As it should be.
- People are turning to podcasts and other alternative sources.
- This will eventually consolidate into something professional and reliable.
- We’re in a period of experimentation and exploration, not entirely unlike the early days of newsletter publishing in the 1970s and 80s. There are fortunes to be won.
- AI looks like (fingers crossed) it might be a useful tool and not the end of the world after all.
It’s time to radically re-think publishing assumptions, methods and revenue models. Are you up for the challenge?
That’s the good news. It’s not “happy days are here again” news, but I think it offers some hope.
If you also want the bad news, read this: Why AI and Google remind me of driver’s ed in high school, plus a new model for a “post free” Internet.
Stay tuned. This is a time for creative thinking, and that’s one thing I like to do. Keep an eye on this space.
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