The Audiencers has been collecting some good information on the correlation between renewal and engagement with an e-newsletter. That is, people who read an e-newsletter are less likely to churn.
This becomes a chicken and egg question.
In scenario 1, people who are loyal to the brand are more likely to sign up for and read an e-newsletter. Those people are also less likely to churn because they’re loyal to the brand. Signing up for the e-newsletter didn’t change anything, although it might increase the satisfaction of the loyal customers. Which is a good thing, don’t get me wrong. It just doesn’t show that the e-newsletter reduced church.
In scenario 2, engagement with the e-newsletter actually causes more brand loyalty. That’s a different thing. But you can’t assume that cause because of the correlation. You’d have to test that.
One way to test it would be to split your audience in two, offer the e-newsletter to half of them, and see if churn goes down in that group. The trouble with a test like that is that it might take a while to get the results.
The bottom line is to remember the distinction between correlation and causation.
