Every major technological revolution in American history displaced workers, but none threatened to eliminate entire categories of cognitive and manual labor at the same time. That’s what artificial intelligence threatens to do, and that’s why it’s different than previous tech revolutions.
The loom displaced jobs in the textile industry, but it created wealth that made more jobs than were destroyed. That pattern has repeated itself many times, and some people believe the same will be true with AI.
That is likely to be a false hope. AI isn’t disrupting one industry or one type of job. It’s disrupting many industries and many jobs.
If AI was confined to self-driving trucks, and it only replaced the roughly 3 million drivers in our country, that would be a substantial blow, but the market would eventually compensate.
AI is different because it’s not confined to one sector. It will replace those 3 million drivers, but it will also replace customer service reps, legal assistants, copy editors, marketers, bookkeepers, graphic artists, programmers, recruiters …. The list goes on and on.
Once AI is tied in with advanced robotics, the problem will only get worse. Job displacement will move beyond white-collar work into skilled trades that were previously considered safe, such as plumbers or electrical workers.
What will happen to all these displaced workers?
The optimists say that AI will create so much wealth that we won’t need jobs anymore. Does anyone know if that’s true? Has anyone mapped it out? How is the displaced worker with no paycheck supposed to benefit from all the wealth and productivity created by AI?
AI will certainly create enormous wealth, but that wealth will be concentrated in the hands of platform owners, infrastructure providers, and data monopolies. The question before Congress is not whether AI will create wealth, but whether the wealth that will be created will be a net positive for the country.
One proposed “solution” is universal basic income, but those are just words with no practical meaning. How is it supposed to work?
- How will that money be collected and distributed?
- Are there any proposals for a new tax structure to collect some of this AI-generated wealth?
- Does the math add up? Can the money collected from AI-generated wealth provide for the displaced workers?
- If everyone is dependent on the government for their livelihood, how will you prevent totalitarianism?
- What happens to personal dignity, family structure and social cohesion in a society where large portions of the population are permanently detached from productive work?
There are more questions than answers when it comes to UBI.
AI is a clear and present threat to the social, economic, and political stability of the country and it needs to be addressed immediately.
Unfortunately, Congress doesn’t have the technical expertise or skills to address this challenge responsibly. You will need to establish a bipartisan, time-limited national commission on AI and labor displacement with a mandate to …
- Model realistic displacement scenarios
- Propose tax and ownership structures for AI-generated productivity
- Evaluate risks to political stability and democratic governance
- Deliver legislative recommendations within 12 months
Let’s hope that’s soon enough, but we also have to admit that it’s not enough — because there’s a trump card that can be played against anyone who wants to slow or regulate AI.
“If we don’t do it, China will.”
That’s true. Even if the United States stopped all development of AI, the Chinese will keep doing it, and that would be a catastrophe for us and the world.
That’s no reason to give up the fight. The world came together to ban chemicals that threatened the ozone layer, and to stop nuclear proliferation. This challenge is harder, but the world must come together to address this threat as well.
History will judge this Congress on whether or not it rose to this challenge.
